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Industrial logic: the theme logic supporting the rise of iron ore

the bad news of iron ore, in addition to the old high port inventory, is really difficult to find new bad news. Of course, from the perspective of industrial chain linkage, if there is an adjustment of the thread, the adjustment of the ore will also occur. In the absence of major action, I personally think that the callback of the ore should be an opportunity to find multiple orders; From the perspective of industrial themes, there is not much suspense about the direction of rise. Strictly speaking, the rise is a high probability. Of course, there is uncertainty about the time point of the replenishment theme of price rise, which increases the possibility of ore adjustment; In addition, there seems to be no restructuring adjustment for the fluctuation and rise of futures, but the technical adjustment can change time for space or directly adjust space. The trade-off between these two methods has no strict dividing line, and it is more a summary after the event. Therefore, there is no doubt about the general direction. Of course, if you have bad topics, please leave a message

according to the current black industry logic, there is a high probability that the general direction of iron ore price trend is too much

rising theme 1. The theme of replenishment based on seasonal cycle has not been fully released. The motivation for replenishment is seasonal weather. As the in plant inventory of steel mills begins to decline after the Spring Festival, a large number of in plant inventory moves forward. Considering the production profits of domestic steel mills, the production capacity of long-process steelmaking is constantly increasing, so driven by profits, The demand for iron ore in the steel plant remains relatively large. "Professional modular smarttest measurement and control software, especially for high-quality ores, so once the ore meets the replenishment market, the demand for high-quality ores will start first, but the proportion of high-quality ores in the steel plant inventory is relatively limited, so the high-quality price will still lead to a new round of price rise, which is the position of 2 in the upper right corner

rising Theme 2, because the steel market that began to rise in June is hyped that the capacity of electric arc furnace cannot be released in place, and many comments filled the market are the same argument. However, for the whole year, the supply of goods either increases from suppliers, but in fact, the digestion in the off-season decreases and then matches the supply increment; However, the keynote of electric arc furnace capacity release in all remarks is a matter of time, so the future electric arc furnace capacity release is bound to cause the price of thread to be under pressure from the increase of supply. At the same time, the electric arc furnace capacity release will stimulate the rise of scrap steel price. When the cost of adding scrap steel to the blast furnace begins to match, or even begin to increase, the demand for sinter will increase, coupled with the high level of steel mill profits, The demand for high-quality goods will also lead to price increases again

from the perspective of the rhythm of price rise, the above two themes have stimulated the price rise of high-quality mainstream iron ore, but the proportion of port inventory is relatively limited. Once the demand for steel mills to purchase high-quality products increases, it is not ruled out that some of the phenomenon of reluctant sales will occur, which is also a kind of boost support for price rise; However, when the purchase volume of high-quality ore cannot meet the incremental demand of inventory, the purchase of ore will be transferred, and the substitute products of high-quality ore will increase. According to personal interpretation: the import volume of imported low-grade iron ore is $100billion, and the demand for molten iron can be met by importing high-quality iron ore + refined iron powder

however, due to the fact that most domestic ores are acidic, most imported ores are alkaline, and the production technology problems of blast furnaces, the indicators of rare elements of iron ore in a series of blast furnaces are different, so if the market is more inclined to the combined procurement mode, the market should be in several conditions

first, the price difference between high-grade and low-grade mines has widened, and there is an ideal theme space; Second, the price rise of domestic mines is not as large as that of imported ores, so the price difference between domestic mines and mainstream imported mines is beyond the scope of the policy; Third, the steel plant has stored a certain amount of iron concentrate powder in the early stage, and the demand for purchasing low-grade ores according to the market structure will increase

of course, when the price trend has stimulated the market to start the stage of large-scale purchase of low-grade ores, the price difference between high-grade and low-grade ores in the early stage begins to repair, so the stock replenishment market in the second half of the year will basically come to an end with steel mills purchasing a large number of low-grade ores

therefore, the above subject matter is interpreted based on the logic of market supply and demand. If the policy changes these variables, the ore price trend will evolve into a new price operation rhythm, but the variables of this policy are uncontrollable, so it can only be considered as a variable point before there is no emergence or emergence of seedlings, and the short-term trend follows the current market trend

the above focuses on the current 2 Mode 2: the trend direction of ore price predicted by the industrial state, but the rhythm of price rise and fall needs to be screened. Just like the replenishment market at the beginning, although there is the possibility of advance, the leading indicator of transportation capacity has no sign for the time being, so it can be said that one of the solutions is whether the ore will continue to rise in shock or rise again after shock adjustment, which is still a big variable. According to the recent price trend of futures, once the adjustment of thread high volatility meets the adjustment market, the ore will also undergo phased adjustment

in addition, from the perspective of basis, the risk of taking cash in a single operation is less than that of futures. If the combined transaction is also possible, it is suggested that the recent iron ore price trend should be treated according to the shock rhythm. The callback can rely on support to set up risk control opportunities to participate in multiple orders, control positions, and configure stop loss or stop profit

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