2013 daily report of the hottest packaging and pri

2022-09-23
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Daily report of packaging and printing industry in 2013: e-cigarettes stir up a pool of spring water

investment suggestions

industry strategy: the tobacco packaging industry has a high industry access threshold, and the industry competition is relatively moderate. Moreover, due to the rigidity of downstream tobacco consumption and strong anti cyclical, corporate profits are generally good and stable

in the context of the separation of three industries, there are many opportunities and space for the extension of the leading enterprises of tobacco packaging. At present, the U.S. e-cigarette market has entered a period of explosion, and the domestic e-cigarette market may gradually open in the future. For the current tobacco packaging enterprises, taking advantage of the first mover and channel advantages, they may become the biggest beneficiaries of the e-cigarette market

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industry view

tobacco packaging enterprises have strong profits and large extension space. The tobacco packaging industry has a high industry access threshold. Tobacco enterprises have high requirements for packaging and printing, and generally rarely change suppliers. The internal competition in the industry is relatively mild. Tobacco packaging enterprises generally have strong and stable profits, with very good cash flow and good profit quality

at present, the domestic cigarette label market has a capacity of more than 30 billion, but 70% of the market share is still owned by the supporting cigarette label enterprises subordinate to the cigarette factory. Under the background of the separation of three industries, there are many opportunities and space for the extension of the leading cigarette label printing enterprises

the U.S. e-cigarette has entered an explosive period: in 2013, the U.S. e-cigarette market was about $1billion, accounting for less than 1% of the total scale of tobacco. Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. e-cigarette sales will reach $10billion in the next few years, accounting for 10% of the sales of the entire tobacco industry in 2020 (based on the same amount of cigarettes), 19% of sales and 15% of profits. There is a huge space. The reasons for the outbreak of e-cigarettes in the United States: first, in terms of social environment, consumers pay more attention to their own health; No smoking in public places; Smoking costs are high; Secondly, the policy was loosened. In 2012, e-cigarettes became legal commodities and became an important driving force for the rapid development of e-cigarettes in the United States. In addition, technological innovation, improved user experience, and the economy of e-cigarettes are also important reasons for the explosion and growth of e-cigarettes. Impact on traditional tobacco enterprises: in the short term, it will have an impact on the pricing power of tobacco enterprises, thus affecting the profits. However, in the medium and long term, the industry profit level may fall first and then rise

China's e-cigarette road exploration: China is a large e-cigarette manufacturer, but 90% of e-cigarettes are sold abroad, of which the United States is the largest export market. There are still many constraints on the development of domestic e-cigarettes in the short term. In the future, if the strict implementation of smoking ban policies in public places and consumers' concern for their own health lead to an increase in the demand for smoking cessation, the domestic e-cigarette market may erupt, and the General Administration of tobacco may also consider taking e-cigarettes as a supplement to traditional cigarettes and gradually liberalizing the e-cigarette market. However, we expect that the game dominance of domestic e-cigarettes lies in the General Administration of tobacco and local Chinese tobacco companies. The General Administration of tobacco may also regulate the domestic e-cigarette market through the license system. Therefore, the core competitive advantage of the domestic electronic universal experimental machine for cigarette participants in ordinary use lies in the channel, especially the relationship and cooperation history with tobacco enterprises. At present, the tobacco packaging enterprises that try to get fresh may become the biggest beneficiaries of the domestic e-cigarette market by taking advantage of the first mover advantage

how big is the potential cake in the domestic e-cigarette market? Considering the current price of e-cigarettes, we believe that the consumption of e-cigarettes in China is characterized by high precision, low cost and high stability. The group is mainly first-class cigarette consumers. Assuming that e-cigarettes account for 10% of the market share of first-class cigarettes, the market capacity of e-cigarettes is nearly 30billion yuan. However, in the future, with the progress of technology and scale advantages leading to the decline of costs, the price of e-cigarettes will gradually fall, and the consumption level will be expanded to all smokers. If the market share is still 10%, the domestic e-cigarette market capacity is expected to reach 100 billion

horizontal expansion, cross industry expansion, growth need not be pessimistic. Restricted by the endogenous growth rate of the tobacco industry, the capital market has doubts about the growth of tobacco packaging enterprises, but we don't think we should worry too much. Horizontal mergers and acquisitions and cross industry expansion will become the development direction of tobacco packaging enterprises. We believe that the endogenous growth rate of leading enterprises is expected to maintain about 10%, but the compound growth rate through extended mergers and acquisitions is expected to maintain 15% - 20%. In the future, relying on the stable cash flow provided by the main tobacco packaging industry, enterprises will gradually expand across industries. If the domestic e-cigarette market breaks out, it will open up the growth space of leading enterprises

risk tips

bidding policies lead to vicious competition; Tobacco control policy led to the decline of tobacco production; The progress of domestic e-cigarette is slow. The text has ended with the circular arc end face thickness of the standard impact specimen H = 2-9mm. You can press alt+4 to comment

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