Analysis of China's synthetic resin Market in 2004

2022-08-16
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Analysis of China's synthetic resin Market in 2004 and prediction in 2005

in 2004, the world economy grew strongly, and China's economy developed rapidly, driving the domestic oil and petrochemical production to show a strong growth momentum. In the first 11 months of 2004, the national ethylene output reached 5.72 million tons, and the output of synthetic resin and polymer was 16.32 million tons, an increase of 2.7% and 10.5% respectively over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual domestic ethylene output will reach 6.3 million tons and the polymer output will reach 18 million tons. Domestic plastic products also maintained a rapid growth rate. In the first 11 months of last year, the domestic production of plastic products reached 16.6 million tons, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, and the export volume reached 6.825 million tons, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year

according to experts' analysis, the world petrochemical industry will still be at the peak of price boom in 2005, and the high price of world crude oil will support the price of petrochemical products to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the price of domestic petrochemical products in 2005 will be flat or slightly higher than that in 2004, and the gross profit level of the petrochemical industry will remain at a high level. It is estimated that the growth rate of China's GDP in 2005 will still exceed 8.5%, and the domestic demand for oil and petrochemical products will continue to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the annual domestic ethylene equivalent consumption will increase by about 9.5% over 2004; The demand for the five major synthetic resins will reach 33.65 million tons, with an increase of about 8.5%

current situation and forecast of domestic ethylene industry

in the first 11 months of 2004, China produced 5.7267 million tons of ethylene, an increase of 2.7% over the same period in 2003; The domestic enterprises with more ethylene increase are mainly Guangzhou Petrochemical Company and Lanzhou Chemical Company, which have increased by 120% and 90% respectively compared with the same period in 2003. However, due to the expansion and transformation of Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical, the ethylene production has been significantly reduced, of which Qilu production has decreased by 25% and Daqing production has decreased by 8.3%

a total of 490000 tons of ethylene were added in China in 2004, of which Qilu added 270000 tons/year of production capacity, which was put into operation in October, and Daqing added 220000 tons/year of production capacity will also be put into operation in December. By the end of 2004, the domestic production capacity will reach 6.2 million tons, and the output will be about 6.3 million tons. With the completion of Yangba and Secco ethylene projects in 2005, the domestic ethylene production capacity will increase by 1.5 million tons, and China's ethylene capacity will reach 7.7 million tons at that time

due to the steady growth of China's economy, the demand for ethylene derivatives will also further increase. It is estimated that the annual ethylene equivalent consumption in 2004 will reach 17.8 million tons, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year. China will still import a large number of downstream derivatives of ethylene, equivalent to 11.4 million tons of ethylene. At that time, the self-sufficiency rate of ethylene will be 36%, 1 percentage point lower than that in 2003. It is estimated that the domestic ethylene equivalent demand in 2005 will be about 19.5 million tons. Due to the production of Yangba and Secco, the domestic ethylene self-sufficiency rate will rise to 38%

production status of the five major domestic synthetic resins

in the first 11 months of 2004, domestic synthetic resin enterprises maintained a high operating rate and their output increased steadily. By the end of November, the output of China's five major synthetic resins had reached 15.78 million tons, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year. Among them, PVC increased the most, reaching 18.5%; The output of polyethylene and polypropylene increased by about 5 ~ 7% in the first 11 months of this year due to less capacity increase

in 2004, the domestic polyethylene production capacity increased less, mainly due to the expansion of Qilu's 60000 ton/year LLDPE plant to 120000 tons, such as a medium-sized agricultural film plant, and the 200000 ton/year LDPE plant newly built in Daqing is expected to be put into operation in December. The output in the first 11 months was 4.033 million tons, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. In 2004, the new capacity of polypropylene was mainly the 200000 t/a unit in Zhenhai, which was put into operation in January. In the first 11 months, the domestic output of polypropylene was 4.339 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year

in 2004, domestic PVC continued to show rapid development, especially in the western region, with its raw materials and energy advantages, vigorously develop the production of calcium carbide PVC. The increased calcium carbide production capacity in 2004 is mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi. It is estimated that the production capacity of PVC with low labor input in China will exceed 6million tons in 2004. In terms of the output in the previous 11 months, the output of PVC has exceeded 4million tons, reaching 4.568 million tons. It is expected that the annual output of PVC will exceed 5million tons

the production of PS and ABS in China maintained a steady development in 2004. The output of the main production enterprises of PS and ABS, such as Wuxi Xingda, Zhenjiang Qimei, Ningbo LG Yongxing, has basically maintained the level of last year. The newly added capacity of PS is mainly EPS device, and ABS device is a 125000 T/a device built by Taiwan chemical fiber company in Ningbo. It is estimated that the domestic production of polystyrene and ABS will reach 2.3 million tons and 970000 tons respectively in 2004

in the first 11 months of 2004, the import of five major domestic synthetic resins continued to maintain a stable growth, with a total import of 12.24 million tons, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year. Among them, ABS increased by 10.9%, polypropylene by 8.3%, and polyethylene by 3.7%. The sharp increase in domestic production led to a 6.3% decline in PVC imports

consumption and price status of the five major domestic synthetic resins

the apparent consumption of the five major domestic synthetic resins in the first 11 months of 2004 was 27.87 million tons, an increase of 7.3% over last year. Judging from the consumption of synthetic resin last year, the rapid growth of domestic economy in the first half of the year, especially the investment growth of more than 40%, has driven the rapid increase in the demand for synthetic resin. After July, the sharp rise in the price of synthetic resin led to a sharp decline in the profits of downstream products, resulting in losses for some enterprises. Therefore, the growth of domestic synthetic resin demand has been restrained since July. In terms of consumption, the domestic demand for packaging materials and daily-use plastic products is strong, especially the demand for electrical appliances and plastic products for construction has maintained a substantial increase

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of plastic products of state-owned and other enterprises with an annual output value of more than 5million yuan in China has increased year by year. After 2000, the output of plastic products of these enterprises showed a trend of accelerated growth. In the first 11 months of 2004, the output of plastic products of domestic enterprises above designated size was 16.62 million tons, an increase of 11.6% over the same period last year

in the first 11 months of 2004, China's foreign trade exports continued to maintain rapid growth, with the export value reaching US $529.6 billion. Domestic cheap plastic products continued to expand their influence in the world. In the first half of the year, the export of plastic products reached 6.825 million tons, an increase of 18.8% over the same period last year

in the first half of 2004, due to the increasing demand for synthetic resin in the world, the domestic supply of synthetic resin was tight. Although the production enterprises generally increased the unit operating rate, it still could not meet the market demand. Judging from the price trend in the first nine months of 2004, January continued the trend of the previous year. After the Spring Festival, the price was too high, which reduced the demand. In particular, the agricultural film and woven bag manufacturers generally postponed the commencement of work, which made the price fall. The downstream market demand increased at the end of March, and polyolefin prices rose again, and the inertia has been reduced to the square of the deceleration ratio until the end of August. Although the price of synthetic resin fell sharply in September and November, the price of synthetic resin in 2004 was still the highest in recent 10 years. Especially in July and August, except for PVC, the prices of other products exceeded the highest level at the peak of the business cycle in 1995. From the overall situation in 2004, the average price of polyethylene increased by more than 40% compared with 2003, polypropylene increased by 30%, PVC increased by 20%, polystyrene and ABS also increased by 40%

demand forecast of five major synthetic resins in 2005

the world economy will continue to maintain good growth in 2005. According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund, the world GDP growth rate will reach 4.3% in 2005. After completing the structural adjustment, China's economy will enter the track of benign growth. It is estimated that the domestic GDP growth rate this year is about 8.5%

in 2005, the two domestic joint ventures ethylene - youngba and Secco will be put into operation, adding 1.5 million tons of polyolefin production capacity. At the same time, the capacity expansion and transformation of Qilu ethylene and Daqing Ethylene completed in 2004 will play a role in 2005. The completion and operation of these projects will greatly improve the production capacity of domestic synthetic resin and significantly increase the market share. It is estimated that by the end of 2005, the production capacity of domestic synthetic resin will reach about 22million tons, and the market share will increase to 57 ~ 59%

in 2005, due to the rapid economic growth at home and abroad, the domestic demand for synthetic resin continued to maintain a rapid development trend. In addition, the consumption field of synthetic resin continued to expand, resulting in a rapid increase in the use of synthetic resin. It is estimated that the domestic consumption of synthetic resin will reach 33.65 million tons in 2005, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year. Among them, the demand for polyethylene will reach 10.4 million tons, with an increase of 8.3%, and the growth of high-density polyethylene is higher than that of low-density polyethylene; Polypropylene demand was 7.75 million tons, an increase of 11.0%

as the demand for synthetic resin will further increase this year, and the increase in the world's synthetic resin capacity is limited in recent years, the world's supply of synthetic resin in 2005 is still tight. Although many consulting agencies predict that crude oil will fall in 2005, the price of crude oil will remain high. Affected by this, the price of synthetic resin will remain at a high level. The increase of domestic demand and the shortage of resources in the international market will cause a relative shortage of domestic synthetic resin supply, and the price of synthetic resin will be the same as or slightly higher than that in 2004

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