Analysis of China's container export in 2000

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Analysis of China's container exports in 2000

based on the statistical analysis of China's container exports in 2000, the basic trend of the whole year is that the number has increased significantly, and the amount has basically increased synchronously, slightly lagging behind. According to customs statistics, China's total container exports in 2000 were, an increase of 71.11% compared with last year (including 438974 20 foot containers, an increase of 85.80% year-on-year, 493984 40 foot containers, an increase of 37.92%, and 175688 other containers, an increase of 328.61%); The export value was US $2376.76 million, with a year-on-year increase of 60.31%. The proportion of container exports in China's exports of mechanical and electrical products increased from 1.93% in 1999 to 2.26% in 2000. China remains the world's largest container producer

I. characteristics of China's container exports

1. The quantity and amount increased synchronously, and the amount slightly lagged behind. Compared with 1999, the quantity of China's container exports in 2000 increased significantly in all other months, except for a certain decline in January, and the amount showed a synchronous growth trend. From January to may in the first half of the year, the growth rate of quantity is generally higher than that of amount; From June on, except for July and September, the amount and quantity of other months have increased synchronously and slightly higher than the growth of quantity, reaching the highest point in October and November, and the amount growth is about 10 percentage points higher than the growth of quantity. Throughout the year, a consistent and better printing quality curve is drawn, which is slow and upward, with slight ups and downs; According to the statistics of the whole year, the lagged amount increased by 10.8 percentage points, which was 75.46% lower than the difference of 18.95 percentage points in 1999. From the statistical data in Table 1, it can be seen that the number of each month in 2000 increased significantly compared with the average year of 1999 (except January), and even the smallest November (62795) was only 13.56% and 0.07% lower than the highest July (71313) and August (62838) in 1999. The substantial growth in the number of each month in 2000 laid the foundation for the annual growth of 71.11%. In 2000, China's container exports, both in terms of quantity and amount, were a bumper year, which not only consolidated the first episode 5. The status of a major producer of antibacterial modified engineering plastics, but also achieved certain economic benefits

2. Box structure

compared with 1999, there were some obvious changes in box structure in 2000. The number of boxes with 20 feet increased by 85.80%, and the proportion reached 39.6. First, the electromechanical forward rotation was 0%; The number of 40 foot boxes increased by 37.92%, and the proportion decreased to 44.56%; The number of other containers has increased significantly, with an increase of 328.61%, and the proportion has also reached 15.84%, more than double that of 1999, indicating that the market demand for large volume containers over 40 feet, special containers, regional special containers and other container types has increased vigorously. China's container enterprises have adapted to the changes in the market, and the manufacturers and output of such containers have increased accordingly. 3. From the container statistics of the chamber of Commerce for machinery and electronics every quarter, In 2000, the price of steel dry cargo containers showed a gradual upward trend, while the price of refrigerated containers basically remained stable, slightly fluctuating up and down. The improvement of container prices in 2000 was carried out against the background of the rise in the price of raw materials. About 50% of the rise in container prices was due to the rise in the price of raw materials. The profits of container enterprises are still very thin, which has not yet reached a level sufficient to enable enterprises to enter a benign development

4. Regional market changes

according to the statistics of the chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical industry, the statistical unit was changed from "only" to "TEU". In 2000, the market share of China's container region was (in parentheses, the statistics of the chamber of Commerce in 1999): 37.12% (51.16%) in the south, 2.51% (33.54) in the East, and 20.37% (15.30) in the north

although the statistical units of the customs and the chamber of commerce are different, the market change trend can still be seen from the above two different statistics. In 2000, the market share of East China surpassed that of the south for the first time, becoming the largest container production and export region in China; There was also a significant increase in the northern region; Although the market share of the southern region has declined, accounting for only 30.43% (37.12%), the region is adjacent to Hong Kong, and its unique geographical location and container demand make its position in the market can not be ignored

II. Analysis of major countries and regions of China's container exports on the whole, in 2000, China's container exports were still dominated by Asia, with the proportion of quantity and amount reaching 61.58% and 57.85% respectively. Compared with the same period in 1999, the container volume decreased by 6.3% and the amount decreased by 9.69%. Although the quantity and amount have decreased, they still account for more than half of the total amount of the whole year (see Table 5 for details), maintaining the position of China's largest container export market. The four major national and regional markets of China's container exports are Hong Kong, the United States, South Korea and Taiwan. Compared with last year, their order has not changed except for the exchange of positions between the United States and South Korea. The market share of Hong Kong has decreased significantly (by 6.7%), and the market share of the other three countries and regions has not changed significantly

the first place is Hong Kong, China. The number and amount of container exports reached 278101 and US $670.22 million, accounting for 25.08% and 28.20% respectively. Both groups of figures account for more than a quarter of the total export volume; In terms of total volume, the number and amount of containers exported to Hong Kong in 2000 increased significantly compared with 1999, increasing by 36.66% and 34.53% respectively

the second place is the United States, with the number and amount of exports reaching 198041 and US $442.357 million, accounting for 17.86% and 18.61% respectively, an increase of 0.92% and 1.22% year-on-year

the third place is South Korea, with the export volume and amount reaching 190429 and US $380.293 million. Compared with 1999, the volume and amount increased by 65.53% and 46.49% respectively, and the proportion slightly decreased to 17.18% and 16.00%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.78% and 1.51% respectively

the fourth place is Taiwan, with the volume and amount of boxes reaching 81777 and US $189.057 million, accounting for 7.38% and 7.95% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% and 0.85%. Political and economic factors on both sides of the Taiwan Strait determine the changes in trade and container market demand. The development of the "small three links" between the two sides of the Strait and the increase of Taiwan businessmen's investment in the mainland of the motherland have made the economic relations between the two sides closer and promoted the development of trade. The export volume of containers in 2000 increased by 49.7% over 1999

in addition, as a unified economic entity, the EU has always occupied a large share in China's container export market. In 2000, the number and amount reached 187473 and 452.67 million US dollars, accounting for 16.91% and 19.05% respectively. With the expansion of the European Union and the development of economic integration, its position in the world economy is becoming increasingly important. The development of European economy and Sino European trade will promote the increase of container market demand

the number and amount of containers exported to the above five countries and regions account for 84.41% and 89.81% of the total export volume respectively. It is the main city of China's container export. Third, the market situation of China's container export in 2001. 1. The preliminary estimation of domestic container stock, there are about 100000 to 140000 TEU of containers that were not exported after production in 2000. These containers stacked in each container factory will enter the market as exports in 2001, It is bound to have a certain impact on the order receiving, production and price of containers this year

2. Impact of newly put into operation container ships

according to the annual report of Clarkson consulting, the containers delivered in 2000 were 486000 TEU and will reach 504000 TEU in 2001. Therefore, the demand for containers by newly built container ships in 2001 will increase slightly compared with that in 2000

3. China's container regional market

the southern market is dominated by large enterprises. Four enterprises with an annual output of more than 100000 TEU account for 77.52% of the output in the region. If the other two medium-sized enterprises with an annual output of more than 50000 TEU are included, the market share of large and medium-sized enterprises will reach 95.46%. In an environment where the regional market is relatively shrinking and Hong Kong's economy is affected by the United States, the competition in the regional market is bound to become fierce and have an impact on the development of the overall market

there are 19 container factories in East China, accounting for 44.19% of the total container enterprises in China. Due to the large number of box factories in this area, it has always been an extremely competitive area. In 2000, the import and export of foreign trade in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places developed rapidly, and the demand for containers increased significantly. The market share exceeded 40%, and there is still an increasing trend. The development of economy and foreign trade in northern China and the stable growth of container demand have changed the downward trend of market share in this region year by year, with a large rebound, and the development space of enterprises is relatively increased

4. Container users

the sluggish international shipping market in recent years has triggered a series of mergers, reorganizations and alliances between large shipping companies and large chartering companies. At present, there are only dozens of large container users in the international market. In order to survive, these large companies have taken various measures to improve their competitiveness. E-commerce, the increasing use of oversized container ships, the exchange of shipping spaces, the gray box plan, the opening of new joint routes and other business methods will relatively reduce the demand for containers

5. Container price

in 2001, due to the negative impact of the slowdown of the U.S. economy and the world's adoption of electronic universal experimental machine type equipment to carry out a series of experiments, international trade and shipping will slow down the growth rate, the demand for containers will be correspondingly weakened, and the market competition will become fierce. At the beginning of the year, the emergence of some low price contracts indicates that the trend of box prices in 2001 is not optimistic

IV. market forecast

the demand of the international container market mainly depends on three main factors. First, the growth of international trade and shipping, second, the renewal of old containers, and third, the number of container ships newly put into operation

1. The impact of international trade and international shipping market

at the beginning of 2001, there was gloomy news about the world economy, and the U.S. economy will decelerate. According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. economic growth will fall from the original forecast of 3.2% to 1.7%, and the world economic growth will also fall from the fastest growth rate in the past 10 years of 5% in 2000 to 3.9% this year; The international statistical information center predicts that the growth of world trade in 2001 will be 8%, two percentage points lower than last year (10%); In 2000, the throughput of international shipping containers increased by 10% to 67million TEU, and it is expected to increase by 7% in 2001. The above groups of data show that the growth of container demand in international trade and shipping in 2001 may be lower than that in 2000

2. Renewal of old containers

according to preliminary statistics, by the end of 1999, the number of containers in the world was about 13million TEU. According to the traditional calculation method of updating 10% every year, there should be 1.3 million TEU. However, due to the continuous downturn of container prices in recent years, a large number of containers that have not yet reached the service period have been retired ahead of schedule, and the proportion of young containers in the world container fleet has increased, and the actual renewal volume will be lower than this figure

3. The number of container ships newly put into operation

the British Shipping Research Institute predicts that, according to the current delivery plan, shipbuilding and ship dismantling level, by the end of 2001, the total transport capacity of the global container fleet will increase from 4.8 million TEU in 2000 (an annual net increase of 486000 TEU) to 5.32 million TEU, an increase of 520000 TEU, which is the highest year of fleet growth in recent years. According to the preliminary estimation, the demand of container ships newly put into operation in 2001 was about 700000 TEU, a slight increase over 2000. In addition, the development of China's economy, foreign trade and domestic trade shipping has an increasing impact on container demand. According to relevant statistics, China's port container throughput in 2000 increased by 37.1% over 1999, reaching 22.68 million TEU; According to the prediction of relevant departments, the container throughput will reach 85million tons by 2010

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